The new numbers show more than the smaller upticks we've seen in other polls:
Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.
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Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. The NEWSWEEK survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin.
Just as significant is this news about party identification:
Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy--55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters.
As Singer wrote earlier, many current electoral forecasts are ignoring a significant number of variables that could tip the scale towards Obama - and party ID is a big one.
There's a much larger shift going on than just topline numbers. First, Obama's campaign is specifically targeting and activating existing but historically under-performing Democratic demographics. Second, more and more people are self-identifying as Democrats generally - George Bush has wrecked the Republican brand, and John McCain has lost his record of independence from Bush. So Singer's 100% right - we need to be on the lookout for so-called "balanced" forecasts that only tell half-the story.
Update [2008-6-20 21:8:54 by Todd Beeton]:Hmm, funny thing:
Hardball yesterday: "if everything's aligned so perfectly for the Democrats this year, why isn't Barack Obama further ahead?"
Hardball today: "this Newsweek poll is clearly an outlier."
Just sayin'.
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